Iran
The Gulf Did Not Stay Out
May 15, 2026
Latest DispatchMay 13, 2026
Russia·John Hendricks·May 18, 2026
Ukraine’s Drone War Has Crossed the Saturation Line
Oil storage tanks burn at the Tuapse refinery on Russia’s Black Sea coast, April 16, 2026. The strike was the first of four in two weeks. Source: 2026 Vantor.
The May 17 attack on Moscow was not a capital story. It was a production story. Ukraine has built enough long-range drone volume to make Russian air defense the constrained resource.
Read the Analysis →Latest
Dispatches
- 01Aramco Says Oil Markets Won’t Normalize Until 2027May 13, 2026
- 02Saudi Arabia and UAE Struck Iran During the WarMay 13, 2026
- 03THE BASE IRAQ COULDN’T SEE, AND WASHINGTON COULDN’T DISOWNMay 13, 2026
- 04THE TANKER MARKET BET AGAINST DIPLOMACYMay 8, 2026
- 05HALF OF RUSSIA’S IRAN-WAR OIL WINDFALL IS BEING PAID BACK TO OIL COMPANIESMay 6, 2026
China
The Constellation Is the Weapon
John Hendricks · May 11, 2026
China
China’s Maritime Architecture Is Hardening Downward
John Hendricks · May 7, 2026
Iran
The Gulf Did Not Stay Out
The Iran war did not unify the GCC. It exposed four divergent Gulf postures: Emirati escalation, Saudi contradiction, Kuwaiti ambiguity, Qatari restraint, and an Iraq too compromised to protest.
John Hendricks · May 15, 2026
Dispatches
- 01Aramco Says Oil Markets Won’t Normalize Until 2027May 13, 2026
- 02Saudi Arabia and UAE Struck Iran During the WarMay 13, 2026
- 03THE BASE IRAQ COULDN’T SEE, AND WASHINGTON COULDN’T DISOWNMay 13, 2026
- 04THE TANKER MARKET BET AGAINST DIPLOMACYMay 8, 2026
- 05HALF OF RUSSIA’S IRAN-WAR OIL WINDFALL IS BEING PAID BACK TO OIL COMPANIESMay 6, 2026
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